According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China, as of October 2022, China’s import trade volume of timber and wood products has accumulated to 100.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%;
Imports of timber and wood products reached 47.79 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25.2%; China’s total log imports were 36.25 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 32.1%;
The amount was 47.963 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.7%; the total amount of imported sawn timber was 21.81 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%; the amount was 41.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%.
In October 2022, China will import 3.15 million cubic meters of logs, a year-on-year increase of 36.9%; the amount will be 3.972 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.9%; sawn timber imports will be 2.16 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, to 3.875 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.9% %.
According to the import data of logs and sawn timber from 2021 to 2022, log imports will continue to decline in October 2022, a month-on-month decrease of 3.96%; the average log price is 1261 yuan/cubic meter, a month-on-month decrease of 5.10%. Demand in the construction sector has tapered off this month.
Judging from the trend of log imports in 2021, the import volume of logs decreased in October last year, but the growth rate of imports rebounded slightly next month.
Since the middle of this year, log imports have continued to decline, which also means that the terminal market in the second half of the year is relatively sluggish, and the boost effect is not good. The profit of domestic log trade has shrunk due to the decline in external prices and exchange rates.
At the same time, the average daily shipment of logs at the port has declined, the raw material reserves of merchants have continued to shrink, the spot price advantage of logs is not strong, the demand for new materials undertaken by merchants has continued to decline, the domestic inventory of medium and high-priced materials is low, and the arrival of radiata pine continues to lower the price. Log quotes.
The distribution of domestic log stocks has intensified, and there is a shortage of common materials in some areas. In the end, the “guaranteed delivery” policy of real estate construction boosted the real estate market, but its sustainability was not strong.
Real estate capital availability fell by more than 20% compared to the same period last year. Real estate is under pressure and it is difficult to improve demand in the timber market.
According to the analysis of sawn timber changes, the import volume of sawn timber decreased by 7.69% month-on-month, and the average price of sawn timber was 1794 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 3.44% from the previous month.
From the perspective of the international market, due to inflation and uncertainty related to the Russia-Ukraine dispute, global timber demand has declined, energy prices have remained high, and cost inflation has prompted foreign sawmills to gradually reduce logging volumes.
From the perspective of the domestic market, sawn timber prices continued to decline. The current market is oversupplied and overcapacity. Imports of sawn timber are also expected to fall further towards the end of the year.
According to the analysis of the national average price of 3 million white pine trees from 2021 to 2022, at the beginning of November last year, the price of timber fell for several consecutive rounds, and stopped falling in the middle of this month, and the price stabilized.
However, white pine prices are stable this year. Price fluctuations have dropped this month, and the price trend line is “parabolic”, and there is still room for price reduction. To sum up, due to the early Spring Festival next year, processing enterprises will stop sawing, and the holiday may be about half a month earlier than in previous years.
It is expected that the peak period of downtime for production enterprises will appear in mid-December. The tightening of supply-side production capacity will further concentrate terminal demand. The supplier’s quotation is tentatively raised, but the actual market transaction is weak. Currently, end-demand support for the timber sector is limited.
Repeated epidemics and a gradual drop in temperature will slow down or suspend construction progress. It is expected that the price of construction timber will continue to fall in the later period, and log imports will decline.